Weather Station Data and Anomalies

The analysis for this report draws on data from 44 of 62 regional weather stations, with 4 stations excluded due to anomalies that rendered their readings unreliable along with 14 additional which recorded no weather data for the day. All stations are provided and documented for further review with their address, zip code, and distance from the fire origin.

Anomalies Omitted

• KCATOPAN8 (2.34 miles from the fire origin): Reported abnormally high sustained wind speeds of 89 mph and gusts of 98 mph, values not corroborated by any surrounding stations. These measurements are likely due to sensor error or miscalibration. The station is located at the 69 Bravo Helistop, a mountaintop facility known for strong localized wind patterns, but the area did not burn during the fire. See: 69Bravo.com.
• KCALOSAN842, KCASANTA4733, KCASANTA630: These three stations reported zero wind and gust values throughout January 7, 2025, including during the critical fire spread period. Their inactivity suggests offline or non-functional status during data collection.
• KCAAGOUR101, KCACALAB72, KCAENCIN812, KCALOSAN1130, KCAMALIB110, KCAMALIB140, KCAMALIB147, KCAMALIB162, KCAPACIF132, KCAPACIF208, KCAPACIF227, KCAPACIF320, KCAPACIF367, KCATOPAN31: There fourteen stations reported no weather activity on January 7, 2025.

Wind Conditions During the Manageable Window

While data from all 44 valid stations were reviewed, special attention should be given to the 34 stations located within 10 miles of the fire origin to assess conditions during the most critical window, from 10:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m., when Cal Fire still reported the blaze as manageable.

Across these 34 stations, the average maximum sustained wind speed during this timeframe was 16.77 mph, and the average maximum wind gust was 24.82 mph. The average maximum values are calculated by the mean of each station’s highest recorded wind speed and gust between 10:00 a.m. and 4:00 p.m. on January 7, 2025. Average maximum should not be confused with the daily average which equates to only 6.2 mph average wind speed and 10.2 mph average wind gust for the 34 weather stations located within 10 miles of the fire origin. Maximum average is calculated from the maximum values throughout the time period.

These values fall well within the range of normal seasonal variation and provide clear evidence that, during the early hours of the fire, weather conditions were moderate and did not reflect the extreme or uncontrollable forces some later claimed.

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