Forecasts and Fire Risk Warnings
Media outlets have falsely claimed that the winds driving the Palisades Fire were “unforeseen.” In fact, between January 3 and January 7, 2025, the National Weather Service, Southern California Edison, and the City of Malibu issued at least five public alerts warning of an imminent Santa Ana wind event and “extreme” fire-weather conditions. Although the strongest sustained winds and gusts ultimately fell short of the 60- to 90-mph values mentioned in those forecasts, the advance warnings, covering power shut-offs, road closures, and Red Flag conditions, made it clear that elevated fire danger was anticipated well before the first flames appeared.
Timeline of Advance Warnings
| Date & Time (PST) | Issuing Agency | Key Message |
| Fri Jan 3 – 6:55 a.m. | NWS – Area Forecast Discussion | Noted scenarios “ranging from a widespread damaging windstorm and extreme fire-weather risk to weaker offshore flow” for Tue–Thu (Jan 7–9). |
| Sat Jan 4 – 8:00 p.m. | SCE – PSPS Watch | Announced 363,196 customers (including all of Malibu) were at risk of planned shut-offs starting as early as Tue Jan 7 because of forecast winds. |
| Sun Jan 5 – 4:55 a.m. | City of Malibu – Alert | Cited NWS projections of 60–80 mph coastal gusts and 90 mph mountain gusts; repeated SCE blackout warning for Tue–Wed. |
| Mon Jan 6 – 12:00 p.m. | City of Malibu – Red Flag Warning | Declared “widespread, extremely dangerous fire conditions” from 4 a.m. Tue Jan 7 to 6 p.m. Thu Jan 9; urged residents to prepare for fires, evacuations, road closures (Topanga Cyn), and PSPS. |
| Tue Jan 7 – 9:00 a.m. | SCE – Power Shut-Off Initiated | 712,769 customers notified; 363,196 de-energized. PSPS activated ahead of peak winds |
Key take-aways
- Each alert explicitly linked strong Santa Ana winds (forecast up to 80–90 mph in exposed areas) with extreme fire danger.
- Residents, utilities, and fire agencies had 72–96 hours of notice that critical fire-weather conditions would begin the morning of January 7.
- The power shut-off program, road closures, and activation plans for Malibu’s Emergency Operations Center were in place before the first smoke column was reported.
Consequently, claims that the wind event, and by extension the fire behavior, was “unforeseen” are contradicted by the documented sequence of official warnings issued days in advance.
Responses