Cal Fire Reporting Timeline and Wind Conditions
Cal Fire’s reporting on January 7, 2025, indicates that the fire was initially considered manageable during the hours between 10:00 a.m. and 4:00 p.m., a period characterized by moderate, historically typical wind conditions. This timeframe is central to evaluating fire management decisions and weather influences, as it encompasses the window in which the fire grew from a small, controllable incident to a significantly larger event.
- 10:30 a.m.: Cal Fire initially reported the fire at 10 acres.
- 11:06 a.m. to 11:26 a.m.: Cal Fire issued four updates stating the fire remained at 10 acres, suggesting minimal growth in the early stages.
- 11:31 a.m. to 2:31 p.m.: Within this three-hour window, 14 reports from Cal Fire consistently cited the fire at 200 acres, indicating a small expansion from the earlier 10-acre figure.
- This growth occurred while wind conditions remained moderate, with the highest sustained wind speed during this time recorded at 35.7 mph in Malibu, well below thresholds associated with uncontrollable fire behavior.
After this period:
- 3:34 p.m. to 10:20 p.m.: Cal Fire issued 20 reports documenting the fire’s expansion to 1,262 acres.
- January 8, 12:29 a.m. to 11:11 a.m.: Cal Fire made eight updates noting the fire had reached 2,921 acres.
- January 8, 11:45 a.m.: Cal Fire reported the fire increased to 11,802 acres.
This weather analysis focuses on the 10:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. window on January 7, 2025, because this period represents the critical phase when the fire was still reported by Cal Fire as potentially manageable. During these six hours, weather conditions, though serious, remained within historically normal parameters, with no record-breaking wind speeds or gusts. Claims that the fire was immediately uncontrollable or driven by unprecedented wind conditions during this time are not supported by the available data.
By contrast, the most significant growth in fire size occurred later, with Cal Fire reporting a jump from 2,921 acres to 11,802 acres at 11:45 a.m. on January 8, 2025, more than 24 hours after the initial ignition, and at that point, containment remained at 0%. This underscores the importance of evaluating the early containment window separately from the broader timeline, as it provides critical context for understanding fire management opportunities and the actual influence of weather conditions on initial fire behavior.
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